New Deep Dive
The second half is a deadline, not a round
Korea's second-half offshore wind auction is the final round that will carry REC multipliers. The National Assembly retired the Renewable Portfolio Standard on 20 August after fifteen years and replaces it from 2027 with a government-run long-term fixed-price contract market. A certificate spot market runs three years as a transition, and industry reporting reads that transition as not covering offshore wind. For offshore wind there is no bridge.
2.2 GW offered in one round, the largest ever | 2.4 : 1 headline competition ratio, twelve candidates | 31.6% of the fixed-bottom pool has not closed EIA consultation |
Both reasons to wait have gone
A developer who sits this one out is not waiting for a worse round. It is waiting for a different instrument. Until now waiting was often rational, because awarded volume swung by more than a factor of two between adjacent years and the rules were rewritten every time. That argument is gone. So is the other one. The ceiling fell for the first time in the first half of 2026, to 171.229 won for fixed-bottom, and floating was given a ceiling of its own at 175.100 won.
The ratio rests on an assumption
The roadmap allocated 4 GW for this year. The first half took 1.8 GW, so the second half carries 2.2 GW. Twelve candidates are circulating, eight fixed-bottom at roughly 3,585 MW and four floating at roughly 1,716 MW. But just under a third of the fixed-bottom pool has not closed environmental main consultation. If Gwangpyeong and K-Wind Power cannot bid, the pool falls to about 4,160 MW and the ratio falls to about 1.9 to 1, below the government's own 2 to 1 target.
Grey marks projects already awarded a contract. Orange marks the fixed-bottom candidates for the second half. The four floating candidates sit together off Ulsan.
Price is not the selection variable
Jangbogo bid into a public-led track that still had roughly 240 MW unawarded after Geumodo was selected, and it was not selected into any of it. Industry analysis attributes that to the turbine it proposed, which fell short of the industrial and economic effect criteria.
An award is not a wind farm
The government has issued Electricity Business Licences for 34.85 GW. Korea has 0.36 GW operating and 0.75 GW under construction. If 2.2 GW is awarded, contracted capacity rises by more than 40 percent in one round while the step to construction does not move at all on the day of the announcement.
The test is not the result announcement. It is how much of the 2.2 GW is still standing at financial close. |
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Sources: Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment mid to long term offshore wind bidding roadmap, 30 June 2026 · Korea Energy Agency auction notices and results 2022 to 2026 · the renewable energy amendment passed 20 August 2026 · industry reporting on the first half round and the second half outlook · KWI Master Database and Project Data Hub.
