The Sierra Club, a US environmental organization, estimates that carbon dioxide emissions from the US power sector could increase by 618 million tonnes between 2025 and 2030 if all planned AI data centers become operational. According to a report obtained and reported on by Bloomberg on October 28, local time, the increase would reach 42%, effectively offsetting the greenhouse gas emissions reductions achieved by US power generation over the past 15 years.
The Sierra Club estimates that US power-sector emissions would reach 2.1 billion tonnes in 2030 under this scenario. The latest estimate is two to four times the projection the organization would have produced a year and a half earlier. The growing number of data centers securing their own generating facilities rather than waiting for connections to the existing grid was also identified as a factor increasing emissions. Generating facilities operating outside the grid alone could emit more than 460 million tonnes, estimated to be comparable to Mexico's annual emissions.
According to TechSpot, forecasts of data center emissions vary widely among organizations, with the gap between the lowest and highest projections exceeding the combined electricity demand of California and Florida. The possibility that renewable energy could supply a substantial share of new data centers contributes to the divergence. US research organization Rhodium Group projects that, even in its highest-emissions scenario, US power-sector emissions in 2040 would be 24% below their 2025 level.
Climate research firm Sightline Climate estimates that roughly one-third to half of US data centers scheduled to open this year will be delayed or canceled, making it uncertain whether all planned data centers will be built. A data center Amazon plans in Texas is expected to receive electricity from a 7.65 GW natural gas power plant permitted to emit up to 33 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually. If it becomes operational, the plant could become the largest single emissions source in the United States.
Further details are available from TechSpot.
Related article: Expansion of Texas data centers projected to increase nitrogen oxide emissions by 136% in 2031.
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Original Korean article: aimatters.co.kr
English brief by Korea Wind Intelligence, koreawindintel.com
