Nuclear capacity projections
Nuclear power is returning to the center of global energy policy as the spread of artificial intelligence (AI) drives a surge in electricity demand. In the 2025 annual report submitted to the United Nations General Assembly on October 23, local time, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi projected that global demand for nuclear power would rise to more than three times its current level by 2060 as AI and data centers expand.
According to the report, projections for global nuclear capacity have been revised upward for five consecutive years as carbon neutrality policies, rapid electrification and demand for carbon-free electricity from major technology companies converge. Currently, 413 reactors in 31 countries supply about 10% of the world's electricity and 25% of its carbon-free electricity, while 72 reactors with a combined capacity of 77.2 GW are under construction in 15 countries.
The IAEA's latest energy, electricity and nuclear power projections, released in September, quantify this trend. Under the high-growth scenario, global installed nuclear capacity rises from 377.1 GWe at the end of 2025 to 1,045 GWe in 2050 and 1,284 GWe in 2060. This is higher than the previous year's projection of 992 GW for 2050. The figure for 2060 is about 3.4 times the 2025 level.
Under the same scenario, 1,017 GWe of nuclear capacity would be added by 2060, with small modular reactors (SMRs) expected to account for 28%, or about 285 GWe. In the previous year's projections, SMRs accounted for 24% under the high-growth scenario and 5% under the low-growth scenario. Even the conservative low-growth scenario was revised upward to 641 GWe in 2050 and 696 GWe in 2060, compared with the previous year's projection of 561 GWe for 2050. This indicates a clear trend toward nuclear expansion under both the optimistic and conservative scenarios.
Data centers and Korean industry opportunities
Data centers are a key driver of demand growth. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), data centers consumed 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the global total. Their consumption has increased by an annual average of 12% since 2017, more than four times the growth rate of overall electricity consumption. It is expected to more than double to about 945 TWh in 2030, exceeding Japan's current total electricity consumption.
An IEA report published in April 2026 found that growth had become steeper. Data center electricity demand rose 17% in 2025, more than five times the growth rate of total global electricity demand, at 3%. Major technology companies' investment in AI infrastructure exceeded $400 billion. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol assessed AI as both an energy consumer and a force helping create energy supply by driving solutions such as next-generation reactors.
This explains why nuclear power has emerged as an option for AI data centers that require uninterrupted electricity 24 hours a day. Google has signed an SMR agreement with Kairos Power, and Amazon has signed one with X-energy, while Microsoft is pursuing the restart of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant. Amazon plans to invest $500 million in X-energy and deploy more than 5 GW of SMR capacity by 2039.
The expansion of the global market also offers opportunities for South Korea's nuclear industry. Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power signed the main contract for new nuclear units at Dukovany in the Czech Republic in June 2025, worth approximately 26 trillion won. In April 2026, it delivered a conceptual design to the Czech client under the contract. The industry is proceeding with subsequent design work with the aim of starting construction in 2029. In June 2026, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power President Kim Hoe-cheon visited the Czech Republic to review implementation on the contract's first anniversary.
In the SMR sector, manufacturing capability is considered a competitive strength. Doosan Enerbility has partnerships with US SMR developers including NuScale Power, X-energy and TerraPower, and is building a dedicated SMR factory in Changwon, South Gyeongsang Province. Securities analysts expect the factory to become a base capable of meeting demand for around 20 units annually amid SMR export cooperation among South Korea, the United States and Japan. KEPCO Engineering & Construction is a key participant in the design of South Korea's innovative SMR (i-SMR) and aims to obtain standard design approval in 2028. Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power signed a memorandum of understanding with US-based Oklo in May 2025 to cooperate on developing fourth-generation SMRs.
Safety concerns and conditions for expansion
Despite the trend toward nuclear expansion, safety and nonproliferation challenges remain. In the report, Grossi expressed deep concern about North Korea's nuclear activities, for which restrictions on IAEA inspections prevent the agency from reaching safeguards conclusions. Grossi criticized the situation as "an example showing the grave consequences of crossing red lines in violation of UN Security Council resolutions." Regarding Iran, which came under attack by the United States and Israel in June 2025, Grossi said no agreement could endure without IAEA verification and called for the prompt return of inspectors. Grossi also noted that Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Europe's largest, remained in a dangerous condition because of military activity and repeated losses of external grid power.
Some market participants are also cautious about whether the projections can be achieved. The IAEA stipulates that its high-growth scenario can be achieved only with support from national policies, investment and regulation. According to the previous year's report, achieving the high-growth scenario would require approximately 26 GW of new capacity annually, while actual additions averaged only around 5.9 GW a year over the past five years. Shorter construction periods, expanded supply chains, workforce development and life extensions for existing nuclear plants are key.
Original Korean article: SME Daily
English brief by Korea Wind Intelligence, koreawindintel.com
